Community research

One line decided the contest

NQ10 KSXN won Guess the 2026 report, the only entry that guessed anywhere near Nimiq's NIM holding.

The winning address's identicon, a teapot cat, wiggles, leaps out of its badge and lands back in under confetti
NQ10 KSXN 43A6 3CTA 3QBM 19MU C4G2 GE8R Y36C 
63.8pp winning score
11 entries
1 deciding line
$5 USDC prize

Top three

Lowest wins. First missed by half as much as second.

01
NQ10 KSXNNIM guess 1,201m
63.8pp
02
NQ64 Q2UHNIM guess 568m
122.0pp
03
MikeNQ65 Q5QG, NIM guess 450m
160.9pp
The other eight, 178.3pp to 196.8ppEvery entry below third, and how the two ties broke
04 · Dharma, NQ41 93AU178.33pp
05 · NQ38 AU4H181.90pp
06 · NQ58 TMEF184.47pp
07 · NQ41 MTDX184.47pp
08 · NQ76 MPMM185.19pp
09 · NQ92 TB88185.19pp
10 · NQ82 C63X186.76pp
11 · Bjorntje, NQ45 M1J1196.76pp

Two pairs tied, at 184.47pp and 185.19pp. Each went to the earlier block, as the rules say.

NIM holding

The accumulation plan grew it almost twelvefold, and only first place guessed past a billion.

Nimiq, 2025Reported, 2025 report
132.0m NIM
Nimiq, 2026Reported, 2026 report
1,557.7m NIM
1stGuess, on chain
1,201m NIM
2ndGuess, on chain
568m NIM
3rdGuess, on chain
450m NIM
The other eightGuesses, on chain
106m to 165m NIM

The other six

Second place was closer on five of them. All seven cards are on the result page.

2ndNQ64 Q2UH
closer on 5 of 6
1stNQ10 KSXN
closer on 1 of 6, total spend
Line by line, in real unitsNet assets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, cash, total spend and product development
2nd closerNet assetsReport $11.66m · 1st $15.24m · 2nd $13.29m
2nd closerBitcoinReport 63.15 BTC · 1st 79.7 BTC · 2nd 77.0 BTC
2nd closerEthereumReport 381 ETH · 1st 902 ETH · 2nd 809 ETH
2nd closerCashReport $295k · 1st $1,100k · 2nd $563k
1st closerTotal spendReport $4.38m · 1st $4.00m · 2nd $4.79m
2nd closerProduct developmentReport $2.38m · 1st $2.10m · 2nd $2.30m

Claim the prize

WINNER
Send one transaction
From NQ10 KSXN, the winning address.
WINNER
Name the payout
Data field: a Polygon address for USDC, or NIM.
THIS BLOG
Paid by handNot paid
5.01 USDC still in the prize wallet on Polygon.
Method and scoringThe winner's arithmetic, what was checked, and what the chain cannot show

Each guess was a percent change on the 2025 figure. A line's miss is the gap to the reported change, in percentage points. The score is the average miss across seven lines, plus 10 for a wrong yes or no on a new asset. The 2026 sheet added no new asset, and none of the top three called one.

Net assets18.3pp
Bitcoin18.4pp
Ethereum56.0pp
NIM holding270.1pp
Cash61.5pp
Total spend9.1pp
Product development12.8pp

First place: 446.3pp across seven lines, divided by seven, is 63.76pp.

Guesses were read off the contest wallet on chain: 12 transactions from 11 addresses. The winner sent the same guess twice, and the last entry from an address counts. Figures are reported, from Nimiq's 2026 transparency report, published 16 September 2026.

The rules bar entries from Nimiq team and Community Council accounts. The chain cannot show who owns an address, so that rule was not checked.

The prize wallet, 0xeCe9925d59d3B438F371C9f66ac8F1c53B4B2F18 on Polygon, held 5.008880 USDC and had sent no transaction when read on 29 September 2026. The claim rules are on the contest page.

Read nextGuess the 2026 report AlsoNimiq's treasury, 2018 to 2026